Because it's new, the electorate of Bonner has become an area of fascination for political commentators and campaigners alike. It is the second most marginal seat in Australia, and, since the 2004 election has become something of a trophy seat.

There is a rapidly growing population in Bonner moving into new housing estates and suburbs, who appear to have unpredictable voting habits and unknown loyalties. As Bonner continues to expand, green spaces in the electorate are drying up. New families are moving into the electorate to fill new family-friendly housing developments. Despite all this growth, according to Labor candidate Kerry Rae, “a number of people are finding the cost of living very difficult, particularly people with mortgages who are worried about interest rates, petrol, child care, all of the things they need, to get about their daily lives”. Greens candidate David Wyatt agrees, “There is a lot of new development in the electorate which makes it a real mortgage belt where people have committed to large mortgages in new homes,” Wyatt says. “The demographics have changed a lot since the last election, due to the new developments in the mortgage belt, they are not the traditional older Labor voters that used to inhabit Bonner, it has sort of shifted,” Wyatt says. It is possible that families with mortgages will vote on issues such as the economy, and basic social infrastructure such as education and health. Then again, the statistics look so close it really is almost impossible to judge.

These new voters are most likely working families according to the demographics of the area. Thus the question arises; will these families be affected by the recent changes to IR laws? According to ACTU Community Campaign Coordinator for Bonner Barry Welch, they will. “There are a range of industries affected, certainly retail and hospitality which are quite big industries in Bonner, as we have a couple of large shopping centres. But also if you go along Lytton rd there are a whole range of factories there including manufacturing industries where AWAs are starting to be used,” Welch says. Rae says that she, too, has heard of instances of workers who have been unhappy about the IR laws, and who have felt that AWAs are not working to improve their rights at work. “There are a number of people who are concerned about the security of their employment and the conditions of their employment…It seems to be people that are on lower paid jobs that are affected,” Rae says. At the time of writing I have been unable to get an interview with the incumbent member, Liberal MP Ross Vasta.

The influx of new voters are not the only thing at play in Bonner during this election. Ross Vasta is battling uphill after being named in allegations around printing allowances which have also troubled Liberals in neighbouring electorates.  Perhaps, ironically, he is also being criticised for printing and distributing large amounts of glossy brochures about himself and Bonner throughout the electorate. It may be that the printing issue is causing Vasta to avoid the limeliight until the formal campaign. According to Wyatt, “It’s very stage-managed when he comes out in the media, he definitely won’t front open forums or a lot of journalists,” he says.

A sleeping local issue in Bonner is the proposed additional runway at Brisbane Airport. The issue has dropped out of the media in recent times but if the proposal is implemented, it will mean Bonner will cop the consequences of increased ait traffic. Areas in Bonner sit right under the current airport flight path and the impact on residents will mean more noise, more frequently. “We don’t have an airport curfew, and you’ll find Sydney and all the other cities in Australia do,” Wyatt says. Without a curfew the residents of Bonner appear to have little protection from airport noise. “What is really interesting is that Kevin Rudd made his political career  on aircraft noise, and he has suddenly gone silent on the issue,” Wyatt says. The local Brisbane metropolitan, The Courier Mail, printed an article in 2006 that suggested that Brisbane Airport would be willing to divert flight paths where possible over Brisbane’s ‘ritzier’ suburbs of Ascot and Hamilton. The Federal Government will approve the proposal later this year. It’s a sleeping election issue but might crop up again once the election is called and residents begin to realise their bargaining power.

In addition to excess noise, an increase in flights to and from Brisbane Airport will result in an increase in carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Climate change like in many electorates is also an issue in Bonner. Moreton Bay, the tranquil bayside suburbs, major creek catchments such as Bulimba and Tingalpa, and natural bushland, are notable examples of the natural environment in Bonner. “Quite a few people have chosen to live in Bonner because of the natural environment and as a result are very concerned about any impact on it,” Rae says. “It is one of the last areas in Brisbane that has had green space converted to building blocks. Brisbane city is fast running out of land, and this is one of the last areas with new housing going in, after this there is not much left,” Wyatt says.

With all these new developments there is demand for greater access to Broadband Internet. According to Rae Broadband Internet is a voter concern. “There is a large percentage of the electorate where people don’t have access to broadband,” she says. The main areas affected run from Carindale through to Belmont, and Gumdale all the way through to Manly West. “Even housing estates up to two years old don’t have the cable, it wasn’t laid, so people don’t have access unless they have a satellite dish,” Rae says. Browsing the 2004 results from the polling booths in these Broadband-less areas the votes are neck and neck, with neither major party maintaining a majority preference. If voters in those areas care enough about Broadband, Rudd’s policy to greatly improve cable coverage might swing a few voters Labor’s way.

Finally, worth mentioning is the fact that Bonner is home to several large Christian congregations among them the Citipointe Church located in the suburb of Mansfield. Over their careers both Rudd and Howard have declared a commitment to upholding their Christian values. In Mansfield, Family First polled well claiming over 8.77% of the vote, with most preferences heading the Coalitions way. In such a marginal seat where every preference counts it will be interesting to see if Labor’s new image will be a moral winner.

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