Oxley, QLD (Safe ALP)

In July this year, NRL boss David Gallup suggested that a fourth NRL team could be established in the south-west corridor between Brisbane and Ipswich within a decade.

"There's huge growth in the west of Brisbane out towards Ipswich. A couple of years ago I was shown the area – it's been in the back of our minds," Gallop said.

This proposal says a lot about the Oxley electorate, most notably that it’s identifiably filling up with young working families, eager to grab their share of the Great Australian Dream (and associated winter sporting pursuits) where it is still affordable.

Oxley is a fairly safe Labor seat encompassing the eastern suburbs of Ipswich and the rapidly growing corridor between Brisbane and Ipswich.  It includes classic mortgage-belt territory, with the suburbs of Forest Lake, Sinnamon Park, Springfield Lakes, and Collingwood Park filled with young families in new, brick-veneered houses struggling with freshly negotiated debt. It also includes traditional working class suburbs with rough reputations such as Inala, Richlands, Goodna, and Carole Park, regions that have typically voted Labor. In 2004, for example, the Labor Party recorded 81.8% of the vote at Richlands East State School in Inala. It also includes, however, emerging middle-class suburbs such as Corinda, Oxley and Durack, increasingly populated by teachers, accountants, etc, priced out of the nearby gentrified suburbs of Sherwood and Graceville.

Oxley, since its re-establishment in 1949, has had several noteworthy representatives: Donald Cameron, Menzies' Health Minister; Bill Hayden, Labor Party Leader; and, famously, One Nation co-founder, Pauline Hanson, who won the seat as the disendorsed Liberal candidate in 1996. The Oxley electorate and the city of Ipswich became synonymous with the backlash against the major parties, as the so-called ‘losers’ in Australia’s economic paradigm shift towards neo-liberalism chose to express their fury, finding scapegoats along the way.

So what are the issues, both local and national, that are at the forefront of the minds of Oxley voters? The electorate of Oxley follows the length of the Ipswich Motorway, one of Brisbane’s most notorious motorways, and as result transport shapes as a key local issue in the upcoming election. Bernie Ripoll, the incumbent Labor member, certainly believes this is the case and has vociferously argued for a major upgrade for the road. He has made this one of his major election platforms. The Liberal Party has promised to upgrade the motorway by constructing a bypass between Dinmore and Gailes. The so-called Goodna Bypass will be funded to the tune of 2.3 billion dollars. Liberal Party candidate, Scott White, will no doubt hope that Howard’s high profile announcement of the project will help him unseat Ripoll at the next election. It is more likely, however, that Howard is hoping to shore up votes to ensure he retains the more marginal, neighbouring electorate of Blair. Ripoll, predictably, has argued that the Government’s plan is politically motivated and short term, and favours a full upgrade and a western ring road.

Whilst environmental concerns have not overly concerned voters in Oxley in the past, as reflected in the relatively poor vote for the Greens at the last Federal Election (4.4% as compared to 7.2% nationally), South-East Queensland’s unprecedented drought has brought the environment and the issue of water to the breakfast tables, and staffrooms of Oxley – it’s daily, de rigueur conversation. The party that presents itself as being committed to addressing issues such as water management, and perhaps associated concerns such as climate change, may influence the decisions of increasing amounts of voters in this electorate.

The issue of interest rates remains, of course, a concern for many in this electorate, and it remains to be seen whether Howard’s battlers punish the Liberals for the recent interest rate rises and emphatically return Ripoll.

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