Bass (Tas, Marginal Liberal) is the seat in the North East of Tasmania, extending from the Launceston environs, north to include Flinders Islands in Bass Strait.   The seat of almost 68,000 registered voters is currently held by the Liberal Party's Michael Ferguson with a margin of  2.6% (ABC.net.au) , though it has swung numerous times throughout it's 104 year history.

Bass is the seat of the proposed Gunn's pulp mill, which has politized much of the electorate over the past 18 months.  The pulp mill effectively sits on the boundary between the seats of Bass and Lyons, but its influential will undoubtedly be wider, as the much publicised campaigns on the mainland illustrate.

Forestry issues have been prominent  in recent elections, both federal and state, with Mark Latham's ALP forestry policies credited as the cause of the ALP's loss of this seat, with a 3.6% primary vote swing against the ALP in the 2004 election.

The seat is a diverse mix of industry and agriculture, ranging from Comalco's Aluminium smelter to award winning wineries and gourmet food producers.  Launceston also has a large University of Tasmania campus.

Compared to the ABS national average , the population has a higher proportion of females and a slightly higher proportion of voters over 55 years.  With over 83% of the population having been born in Australia, Bass is a very homogenous electorate.  In the past ten years, non- euro migration has increased, especially from South East Asia and the Horn of Africa.  There has been a small amount of anti migrant graffiti around Launceston over the past few years, but most often the offending graffiti has itself been defaced multiple times.

Interestingly, the area has a high than average proportion of people having 'no religion'.  Currently, 80% of Tasmanian churches are involved in the "Jesus, all about life" campaign, with hundreds of placards and posters displayed across the district, in front yards, on billboards and Youtube ads.  

Issues that are current include water and the environment, health, employment, roads and transport and education.

Water and the environmental issues are the prominent issue currently.  Many cars have a multitude of anti-pulpmill stickers accumulating on the rear windows.  Fewer, but still a sizable number have pro mill stickers.  

But the water issue is critical, both for primary producers and for the State's electricity generation.  The drought has seriously impacted on Tasmania, with midlands farms struggling for survival.  But that lack of water has a statewide impact.  Hydro Tasmania, in a 27 August report, stated that the dam inflows are the lowest since the 1967 record low, resulting in a lack of water for power generation and the need to import electricity from the mainland through the recently completed BassLink cable.  The result, announced last Friday, is a 20% increase in electricity charges by next July.  

The timber industry is a large user of water, both in plantations and in the intended pulp mill, where the Greens claim over 26 billion litres of fresh water will be used by the mill each year.  

Health has followed the pulp mill as an issue with the Launceston General Hospital often a talking point, due to it's current funding crisis.  The Mersey Hospital, federalised by the Howard Government is not in Bass, though the issues leading to the federal take-over are also relevant at the LGH.

Unemployment has eased over the past few years.  State Treasurer Michael Aird told the ABC recently that he was 'jubilant'  that the rate fell below 5% this last June.  

A sense of hope was very apparent in the community, almost describable as excitement, on our first visit here in 2003.  It seems to have been tempered with time, but is still of a positive outlook.

Anecdotally, many people express their distrust of the State Labor Government and it will be interesting to see if that has any impact on the federal polling. 

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