On September 29/30, the ALP primary vote dropped 0.5% to 53.5%, while Coalition support also fell 0.5% to 35.5% during the same period.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 61% (up 0.5%), L-NP 39% (down 0.5%).  If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 5.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 1%); One Nation 0.5% (unchanged); and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (down 0.5%).

More electors now think the ALP will win the next Federal election (61%, up 4.5%), while 27% (down 3.5%) think the L-NP will win and 12% (down 1%) can’t say. 

Less than half the number of electors (49.5%, down 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 34.5% (up 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 16% (unchanged) are undecided.

Currently, 21.5% (up 1.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today — this is the highest result since the Morgan Poll began measuring voting strength in late May.  The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Gary Morgan says:

“Of concern to John Howard and his team is that this is the second week in a row the ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll — the only Australian public opinion poll conducted every week — finds primary support for the ALP well above 50%, while support for the Coalition is down 0.5% to 35.5%.

“Howard will be hoping that once the election is called voters will begin to scrutinise the ALP and Kevin Rudd more closely.  We also know that a large number of electors — more than 20% — don’t make up their mind as to who they are going to vote for until they walk into the booth.

“Despite the fall in the ALP vote, the number of ‘Soft ALP voters’ increased by 1.5% to 21.5% — the highest result since the Morgan Poll began measuring voting strength in late May.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 29/30, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 894 electors. 

During the period:

• Kevin Rudd’s wife Therese Rein’s company WorkDirections UK clashed with British unions after winning contracts to find employment for disabled workers;

• Prime Minister John Howard revoked the Federal Government’s offer of a State memorial service for former Labor Senator Bob Collins saying it was not appropriate given the emergence of sexual abuse allegations;

• At least nine people, including several monks, were killed in Burma as the military junta cracked down on anti-Government protestors; and

• John Howard introduced $150,000 grants for drought-afflicted farmers to abandon their lands.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093