Morgan Poll Finding No. 4222 - October 12, 2007
Last weekend Coalition support was up 2.5% to 38% while the ALP primary vote fell 4% to 49.5%.
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 57.5% (down 3.5%), L-NP 42.5% (up 3.5%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a landslide, the latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 6% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%); One Nation 0.5% (unchanged); and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (up 1%).
An unchanged number of electors (61%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while 27.5% (up 0.5%) think the L-NP will win and 11.5% (down 0.5%) can’t say.
A majority of electors (53%, up 3.5%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 28.5% (down 6%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” – 18.5% (up 2.5%) are undecided.
Currently, 21.5% (unchanged) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today – this is equal to the highest result since the Morgan Poll began measuring voting strength in late May. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest ‘face-to-face’ Morgan Poll finds the Coalition Government has regained some of the support it lost in the previous two Morgan Polls.
“Now the leadership uncertainty has passed the Government will be pleased with this increase is support, coinciding as it does with a recovery in Consumer Confidence. With interest rates unchanged at the Reserve Bank’s October meeting the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for October is up 7.9 points to 126.2, which is 2.8 points above the 2007 average; and now 53% (up 3.5%) of electors say ‘Australia is heading in the right direction – this is the highest result since July.”
DURING THE PERIOD:
• Immigration Minister Kevin Andrews announced he was cutting the African refugee intake by almost a third, citing concerns about rising crime, gangs and tensions between African families;
• Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull approved the controversial pulp mill project for northern Tasmania;
• The RBA kept interest rates steady at 6.5%;
• Investigations of drug use surrounded the sudden death of former West Coast Eagles premiership player, Chris Mainwaring; and
• The Federal Government announced plans that if it is re-elected they intend to place the control of the nation’s public hospitals in the hands of individual hospital boards.
Full details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4222/
For further information:
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
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