Morgan Federal Poll, Finding No. 4229 - October 19, 2007 

On the Wednesday and Thursday after the election was called and the Government promised $34 billion in tax cuts, primary support for the L-NP is 39.5%, while support for the ALP is 45%.  With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 55.5%, L-NP 44.5%, the latest Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Last weekend (October 13/14) before the election date was set, and before the L-NP announcement of tax cuts, the face-to-face Morgan Poll showed Coalition support was 39.5% while the ALP primary vote was 49.5%.  With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 57%, L-NP 43%. 

Currently, support for The Greens is 9% (up 2% from the weekend’s face-to-face survey), Family First 1.5% (up 1%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 1.5%).

A reduced majority of electors (55.5%, down 6.5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while 31.5% (up 6%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 0.5%) can’t say. 

Now, 53% (down 4.5%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 31.5% (up 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” – 15.5% (up 2%) are undecided.

Currently, 17.5% (down 5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today.  The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Morgan Poll was the first to pick up a swing to the Coalition a week before the election was called.  On the weekend of October 6/7 the Morgan Poll showed a 3.5% increase in support for the L-NP. 

“This swing to the L-NP has been confirmed by the results of this weekend’s face-to-face poll – a further 0.5% swing L-NP – and a further 1.5% on a two-party preferred basis from the telephone Morgan Poll.

“The ALP’s two-party preferred lead reduced to 11% (55.5% cf. 44.5%) – the closest Morgan Poll (face-to-face or telephone) result since August.

“The number of electors who think the Coalition will win the upcoming Federal election has jumped 6% to 31.5% since the announcement of the election and tax cuts, however, a majority of electors (55.5%, down 6.5%) still think the ALP will be successful.

“The Government will be hoping that this momentum continues to build in the lead up to the election as they continue to promote their credentials as superior economic managers.”

DURING THE PERIOD:

• Prime Minister John Howard called the election on late Sunday, announcing November 24 as the date Australians will go to the polls; 
• The Coalition announced $34 billion worth of tax cuts if re-elected; 
• Australian Trooper David Pearce was killed during a roadside bomb attack just outside the Australian base in Afghanistan; 
• Prime Minister John Howard promised a referendum on recognising Indigenous Australians in the constitution if he is re-elected; and
• The Australian unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 4.2% – the lowest level in 33 years.

Full details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4229/