Morgan Poll Finding No. 4223 - October 26, 2007
With four weeks to go before the Federal election, the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll (October 20/21) shows the ALP 12 points ahead of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis (56% cf. 44%).
An Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two
nights (October 24/25) shows an even narrower gap of nine points (ALP
54.5%, L-NP 45.5%).
If an election were held today, the ALP would still win easily.
Face-to-face Morgan Poll
On the weekend of the ‘Great Debate’
between John Howard and Kevin Rudd, primary support for the Coalition
was 39.5% (unchanged from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while
support for the ALP was 47% (down 2.5%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election,
the two-party preferred vote is ALP 56% (down 1%), L-NP 44% (up 1%).
Currently, support for The Greens is 8% (up 1%), Family First 2% (up
1.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged),
and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 1.5% (down 0.5%).
A reduced majority of electors (54%, down 8%) think the ALP will win
the next Federal election, while (33%, up 7.5%) think the L-NP will win
and 13% (up 0.5%) can’t say.
Now, 53.5% (down 4%) think Australia is heading in the “right
direction”, while 30% (up 1%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong
direction” – 16.5% (up 3%) are undecided.
Currently, 19% (down 3.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in
the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were
held today. The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP
voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.
Telephone Morgan Poll
An Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll
conducted this week (October 24/25) finds Coalition support at 41% (up
1.5% from last week’s telephone Morgan Poll) while the ALP primary vote
is 44% (down 1%).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election,
the two-party preferred vote is ALP 54.5% (down 1%), L-NP 45.5% (up
1%).
Currently, support for The Greens is 10.5% (up 1.5%), Australian
Democrats 1.5% (up 1%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5%
(down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 1.5% (down
2%).
Tasmanian Federal Vote
Special analysis of Tasmanian voting
preference combining the samples from the last two telephone Morgan
Polls and face-to-face Morgan Polls finds a significant fall in the ALP
vote since they gave bi-partisan support for the Tamar Valley Pulp
Mill. Support for the Greens has increased 12.5% from 8% to 20.5%.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest Morgan Polls show the Coalition continuing to close
the gap each week. This should not be a surprise to anyone who has
watched the historical progress of referenda in Australia. The initial
support for a ‘new idea’ or constitutional change flattens out as the
time to ‘vote’ approaches – with very few referenda being passed in
Australia.
“The ‘gap’ will continue to close, and be much closer at election time.
“However, there are two crucial ‘sleepers’ in this election.
Firstly, real ‘unemployment’ and the danger that the RBA will believe
the ‘sanitised’ Government unemployment figures and increase interest
rates, when real unemployment is actually 5.8% (38% higher than the
Government’s seasonally adjusted 4.2%).
“Secondly, the Tasmanian Gunns Pulp Mill Project. The dramatic
increase in Greens support in Tasmania and the growing support for the
Greens across Australia since the L-NP and the ALP both declared their
support for this unpopular project – this is not an issue that will
‘just go away’. As well as the apparent disregard for Australia’s
growing environmental concern, this has the potential to raise issues
of corruption and dishonesty in Government.
“For the academics: Telephone polls have two inherent bases:
1. The sample (by design) only includes those who have telephones (approximately 1% bias toward L-NP).
2. The sample achieved has a much lower response rate than face-to-face
interviews (approximately twice as many people refuse to answer as
refuse face-to-face). The ‘bias’ caused by this rate is less ‘tangible’
and ‘predictable’. Historically, Roy Morgan Research has evidence that
supporters of the party that is ‘out of favour’ tend to be over
represented among those who ‘refuse’ to be interviewed. However, a
compelling event or news story can generate a desire for people to
‘have their say’ – so create its own bias.
“Historically, we have noted more volatility associated with
day-to-day events in telephone polls than in face to face-to-face
polls. For this reason Roy Morgan Research tracks voting intention by
both face-to-face and telephone interviews.”
DURING THE PERIOD:
• Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd participated in a live Leader’s debate;
• Deputy Labor Leader Julia Gillard faced accusations that she has
links with communism after Treasurer Peter Costello questioned her
membership of the Socialist Forum group more than 20 years ago;
• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd announced a $31 billion tax plan
which included a $2.3 billion education tax refund scheme; and
• Leading businessman Richard Pratt faces a $36 million fine following his involvement in a price fixing cartel.
Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4233/
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