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The reliability of polls

With almost daily polls coming out, often with contradictory trends - what wait can we give to each of the different polling companies?    

Newspoll seems to paint a positive story for the government, Galaxy is negative and AC Neilson quite negative.   The last election in Victoria saw polls all over the place but with the exception of Galaxy most painted the outcome of a strong ALP victory which of course was correct. 

What credence should we give these differing polling companies and do polls shape expectations in the community?   


   

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