With three weeks to go before the Federal election, the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll (October 27/28) shows the ALP 15 points ahead of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis (57.5% cf. 42.5%).

If an election were held today, the ALP would still win easily.

Primary support for the Coalition was 39% (down 0.5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 49% (up 2%). 

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 57.5% (up 1.5%), L-NP 42.5% (down 1.5%).

Currently, support for The Greens is 7.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (up 0.5%).

A majority of electors (59%, up 5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (29%, down 4%) think the L-NP will win and 12% (down 1%) can’t say. 

Now, 56% (up 2.5%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 30% (unchanged) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 14% (down 2.5%) are undecided.

Currently, 21.5% (up 2.5%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today.  The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Gary Morgan says:

“The increase in the ALP two-party preferred vote is ‘bad news’ for the Coalition.   If the election were held today the ALP would win in a landslide.  This is despite more electors believing the country going in the right direction, now 56% compared with 53.5% a week earlier. 

“L-NP voters want the Federal Government to cut taxes, keep interest rates low, and look after the aged.  ALP voters want lower interest rates and more Government investment in health and education, etc, and assistance in such areas as housing affordability for the young, rent assistance.

“As I’ve been saying for months, the election will be much closer as voters finally decide whether they will vote out the Government which has Australia experiencing an economic boom.

“Why will the election be closer?  Simple:  

“Electors will vote for which party that will benefit them the most and they will see more benefit to them in tax cuts versus promises or changes in education, health, housing, etc.

“While the ALP must be the favourite to win the election and win many L-NP seats, the gap will close and the number of L-NP seats lost will be fewer than the Morgan Poll shows today.

“But much can happen in three weeks and an interest rate rise next week will reset the agenda again.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of October 27/28, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,086 electors.  Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 1%) did not name a party. 

DURING THE PERIOD:

• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd revealed his climate change proposal, where he would immediately ratify the Kyoto protocol, introduce greenhouse gas targets, and increase renewable energy;
• An SAS soldier was fatally shot while pursuing Taliban extremists.  He was the second Australian soldier to be killed in Afghanistan this month;
• Former Liberal MP Robert Brokenshire joined the Family First party; and
• John Ilhan, founder of Crazy John’s, died suddenly of a suspected heart attack at the age of 42.

Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4235/