The most likely outcome of the 2007 election is a comfortable win for
Labor with minor parties holding the balance of power in the Senate.
If
so this will be only the sixth change of party in national government
since Labor under Curtin came to office in 1941 – Menzies in 1949,
Whitlam in 1972, Fraser in 1975, Hawke in 1983, and Howard in 1996.
Incumbency is usually the best predictor of electoral outcomes.
Governments lose elections because of weak leadership (McMahon in
1972), or economic mismanagement (Whitlam in 1975). A third factor is
widespread belief that they have run their course and become out of
touch with public sentiment (Fraser 1983, Keating 1996, and probably
Howard in 2007).
Crucial for change is a credible alternative prime minister: Latham
showed that negatively last election; Rudd positively this time.
Winning a majority of votes is not enough: Peacock did so in 1990 but
lost by eight seats; Beazley with 51 per cent of the vote lost by 12
seats in 1998. Nor are swings uniform: a 4.9 per cent uniform swing
would give Labor the 16 seats needed to win, but that would include
Howard’s Bennelong seat, and two Western Australian seats where
Coalition support is holding up. More likely is an uneven six per cent
swing that delivers about 16 to 20 seats to Labor.
A bolder scenario is a Labor landslide of eight per cent swing or more
and 30 plus seats that the opinion polls have consistently suggested.
But as Hewson’s losing to Keating in 1993 showed, election campaigns
can turn things around.
A counter scenario is Howard doggedly hanging on; perhaps governing
with the support of maverick National-cum-independent Queenslander, Bob
Katter.
Incumbency after a decade in office is a poor indicator of election
outcomes (even Menzies nearly lost in 1961). Howard’s pragmatic
opportunism has had its decade and squandered the recent good times.
Change is likely and welcome.
Brian Galligan is Professor of Political Science at the University
of Melbourne. He has published extensively on Australian politics,
including more recently as joint author Australian Citizenship (2004)
and Australians and Globalization (2001). He is joint editor with
Winsome Roberts of The Oxford Companion to Australian Politics to be
launched by the Chancellor Ian Renard on 15 November.
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Labour taking the tape
By: Joseph27 (Registered ) on 09-11-2007 02:29
A feasible scenario though I dread the thought of the result not being so uniform and the libs holding on to several key seats. Obviously everyone the libs can hold makes the task for the ALP that much more difficult.
I am genuinely looking forward to kicking back on election night and watching the coverage even more than I am for the Boxing Day test
I do believe that there is a change in sentiment in the community and the ALP will carry the day
Hey there dreamers in OZ. If that really happens and you Aussies are stupid enough to vote for a Labor government under which you will have to suffer for the next 4 years then all I can say is "Good luck maties". Australia is the single best country in the world to live in and its because John Howard has been the single best leader of any of the western countries and has steered a very steady ship. Everything else is just a load of garbage. Remember this and then if you are that stupid as to vote Labor then please do not whine about it in a couple of years as you see what a bunch of idiots make up the the Labor party and all their ideologically retarded friends.
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