The first Morgan Poll since this week’s interest rate rise (interviewing conducted by telephone November 7/8) finds the ALP has a 12% lead on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 56% (up 1.5% from the last telephone Morgan Poll on October 24/25), L-NP 44% (down 1.5%).

However, the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted last weekend (November 3/4) showed the ALP with a record lead of 24% (62% cf. 38%).  Although this was before the increase in interest rates, the latest CPI figure had been released, foreshadowing a likely interest rate rise.  It was also after Tony Abbott made derogatory remarks about asbestos sufferer Bernie Banton, as well as turning up late for his debate with Nicola Roxon, in which he was caught swearing on camera.

The ALP would win in a landslide if the Federal election were to be held now, the latest Morgan Polls finds.

Telephone Morgan Poll

The Coalition’s primary vote is 39% (down 2% from the last telephone Morgan Poll), while Labor’s primary vote is 44.5% (up 0.5%).

Among the minor parties: Greens 10.5% (unchanged); Democrats 2% (up 0.5%); Family First 1.5% (up 0.5%); One Nation 1% (up 0.5%); and Independent/Other candidates 1.5% (unchanged).

A majority of electors (58.5%, down 5%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win and 13% (up 3.5%) can’t say. 

Now, 55.5% (down 8%) think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, while 31% (up 3%) think Australia is heading in the “wrong direction” — 13.5% (up 5%) are undecided.

Currently, 19% (down 4%) of all electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet say they would vote Labor if an election were held today.  The Morgan Poll considers these electors to be “Soft ALP voters” and believe they are the key to the Federal election.

Face-to-face Morgan Poll

On the weekend prior to the interest rate rise, primary support for the Coalition was 34% (down 5% from the previous face-to-face Morgan Poll), while support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 5.5%). 

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the two-party preferred vote was ALP 62% (up 4.5%), L-NP 38% (down 4.5%).

Support for The Greens was 6% (down 1.5%), Family First 2% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (up 0.5%).

A majority of electors (58.5%, down 0.5%) thought the ALP would win the next Federal election, while (28.5%, down 0.5%) thought the L-NP would win and 13% (up 1%) couldn’t say. 

Fifty per cent (down 6%) thought Australia was heading in the “right direction”, while 30.5% (up 0.5%) thought Australia was heading in the “wrong direction” — 19.5% (up a significant 5.5%) were undecided.

Twenty-three per cent (up 1.5%) of all electors said Australia is “heading in the right direction” yet said they would vote Labor if an election were held today. 

Gary Morgan says:

“The 12 point lead in the latest telephone Morgan Poll — conducted after the RBA announced an interest rate rise — represents an increase in the ALP lead of 3% compared to the previous telephone poll.  However, it is still less than the 24% lead recorded in the last face-to-face Morgan Poll — conducted before the interest rate increase was officially announced, but after Tony Abbott’s gaffes and the increase in the latest CPI figures.

“The issue of interest rates has not yet been fully played out in the political arena.  The real question is how the electorate will respond to the latest interest rate increase — will they blame the Government and consider ‘record interest rates’ promises by Mr Howard, will they blame the global financial economy and look to the L-NP Government, as strong economic managers, to lead the country in the coming turbulent economic times?

“This renewed focus on finance and the economy will also reinstate the IR debate to the front of electors’ minds.

DURING THE PERIOD:

• The Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.75%;
• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd was forced to clarify his position on climate change when Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett said a Labor government would be willing commit to a new emissions target without having developing countries onboard;
• Treasurer Peter Costello and his Labor counterpart Wayne Swan took part in a debate at the National Press Club;
• Family First candidate Andrew Quah was expelled from the party after compromising photographs appeared on the Internet;
• Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot was forced to apologise after arriving half an hour late for a debate with his Labor counterpart Nicola Roxon. He was then caught on camera swearing at her; and
• Efficient won the Melbourne Cup.

Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4237/