As campaign advertising reached a crescendo on Tuesday and Wednesday heading into the enforced electronic political advertising ban, Labor and the Liberals bombarded electors with the full thrust of their advertising budgets.  Liberal ads continue to appeal only to those already inclined to vote Liberal - the ads consistently fail to appeal to Labor supporters, according to Roy Morgan’s Reactor.

The strongest Liberal advertisement which solidified Liberal support, and polarised ALP electors less than usual was when former Hawke Labor Government Member Brian Courtice questioned Kevin Rudd’s suitability for the Prime Ministership — Liberal supporters swung rapidly and solidly Liberal with this advertisement, ALP supporters were not convinced however, swinging to Rudd, although not as fast as for the other Liberal ads.

The “Core Liberal promises” ad showed another sharp Liberal supporter swing towards the Liberals, while the ALP voters moved only slightly towards ALP with this ad. ALP supporters were not nearly so convinced. However they responded less negatively to the ads than the typical negative ALP response.

Importantly, nothing moved faster with support for the Liberals than when the Liberal ad raises the prospect of ‘wall-to-wall Labor Governments around Australia’. This ad has a sharp turn for Liberal supporters towards the Liberals. ALP supporters move at a slower pace towards the ALP during this Liberal advertisement.

Generally, the Liberal advertising appealed strongly to their own supporters, with clear spikes in Liberal support amongst Liberal supporters during the five Liberal ads. The reaction of ALP supporters to these ads was consistent, although at very different levels of reaction.

On Tuesday evening and Wednesday (November 20/21), electors all over Australia reacted to the deluge of political advertising. An Australia-wide sample of 540 electors (193 L-NP supporters and 347 ALP supporters) was selected by Roy Morgan Research using a stratified random probability sampling methodology designed to provide a representative sample of the Australian electorate.

Using the Roy Morgan Reactor, respondents reacted online to eight main political advertisements running on television for the Liberals, ALP and ACTU, in terms of whether the advertising made them “more inclined to the Liberal or the ALP”.  Between each advertisement, respondents returned to a neutral position.  The Reactor graph shows clearly how ALP supporters (the Red line) reacted, and how Liberal supporters (the Blue line) reacted.  The higher on the graph the more ‘inclined to vote Liberal’, the lower on the graph the more ‘inclined to vote ALP’.

Typically, respondents react along party lines to spokespeople for their party, or on issues where the parties have differing views or policies.  The electorate’s reaction to the advertisements displayed some of the usual ‘party-line’ response.

The ALP ads had more pronounced movement amongst ALP supporters towards the ALP, while Liberal supporters moved towards the Liberals, although not as strongly as they had when viewing the Liberal ads.

The ACTU advertisement relating to the IR Laws — and possible future adjustments by the Liberals to these laws, clearly hit home with ALP supporters, with a strong move towards the ALP. Liberal supporters reacted less strongly, but did favour the Liberals more when viewing this ad.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan Research, says:

“In line with the previous Roy Morgan Reactor result conduced on November 14/15, Liberal ads once again are failing to hit the ALP where it hurts — with current ALP supporters. The appeal to the Liberal base is strong, but ALP supporters are consistently pushing towards Kevin Rudd, and are unconvinced by the Government’s arguments against Kevin Rudd.   

“With only two days remaining in the election campaign — and radio and television advertising banned by election rules for Thursday and Friday, the Liberal message is failing to gain traction amongst soft ALP supporters.

“These Reactor results show that the Liberal targeting of key marginal seats is vital for their chances of victory in Saturday’s election. It is vital for the Liberals to hold as much of the ground they occupy as they can because they are struggling to have their message heard by the soft ALP voters who will decide Saturday’s Election.”

“It is also important to remember that the L-NP only  need to retain their base and regain the votes of those who voted L-NP last time .While the ALP need to attract votes from among those who voted L-NP last time. The Morgan Polls show that many electors who are now undecided voted L-NP in the last election.”

Full Details: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4249/